This course provides students with knowledge of fundamental methodological issues concerning forecasting in a complex, fast-changing international environment. The course covers some essential methodological issues for the discipline of forecasting, like structuring the forecasting problem, identifying the forecaster’s theoretical assumptions, choosing adequate analytical tools, etc. On the other hand, these methodological issues are confronted with the knowledge of psychological mechanisms involved in the process of formulating judgments and opinions about the future (mental frames, heuristics and cognitive biases, cognitive-motivational mechanisms) that may distort its rationality.

Lecturer: Łukasz Paw, PhD, Jagiellonian University (Poland)